I'm going to take it one step at a time. Several runners had higher TimeformUS figures for Saturday's races, including Cavalry Charge with a 122 in winning the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). Last year, he was on fire. Messier (7-1), Zandon (8-1), and Mo Donegal (8-1) are other top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders according to oddsmakers. The lone outright winner to run under a 100 came in 2014 (California Chrome, 97). He's a special horse. The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 8, 2022 - Last Updated on June 9, 2022. A bay son of Not This Time, Epicenter has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go up in every race of his career, peaking with a 102 in the Louisiana Derby. 38 Flatter Died 2022 67 111 17 0 $665,300 3 3 4% 0 0 0% 96 Hero Status. He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. There were three Kentucky Derby horses that posted 100+ BSFs. On 2016's Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Below, well use Beyer Speed Figures to determine the speed of the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. [5][6][7] Easy Goer also routinely ran in the 120 Beyer Speed Figure range on a regular basis in his races, while arch-rival Sunday Silence did so rarely and only when it was required for him to prevail. In 2019, Country House received the win with a 99 BSF. f: (732) 747-8955. Its true that Speightsown has sired plenty of quality 2-year-olds and talented sprinters, but hes actually far more versatile than that. A bay son of Not This Time, Epicenter has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go up in every race of his career, peaking with a . Horseplayers without the Beyers would assume Destin was the quicker horse by about a length. Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. The list since 1987 Beyer explained that rating a horses ability on just the final time of the race was not good enough, because racing surfaces can vary from day to day based on the weather, how the track is maintained and other factors. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Since making their published debut in 1992, Beyer Speed Figures have become the industry standard for evaluating Thoroughbred performance. Sometimes, variants are split during the day if the surface changes drastically enough. Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. A colt being trounced in Belmont MSW company may find a soft spot upstate at Finger Lakes, where the par for the class is 59.In most cases, pars are not listed for races restricted to 2- or 3-year-olds. In Betting Thoroughbreds, Steve Davidowitz claimed that (in 1974), "the top-figure horse wins 35 percent of the time, at a slight loss for every $2.00 wagered." background-color: #104E8B; Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. I think there will be articles about this later in the week, that they've never seen a horse that is faster. Previewing the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Beyers subsequent books, My $50,000 Year at the Races (1978), The Winning Horseplayer (1983), and Beyer on Speed (1993) continued to raise racing fans awareness of the importance of speed figures. Anything can happen in a 20-horse race, but this is one example of consistent, positive past performances. (16-1) earned a 93 Beyer . He will now try to win the Derby in only his third start, which seems preposterous, but it seemed preposterous to win the . With the 2022 Breeders' Cup fast approaching we take A look at the historical numbers for each of the 14 championship races. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Triple Crown Winners from Sir Barton to Justify, Black History Month: Shining a Spotlight on Notable African American Jockeys, Preakness Quick Sheet: Get to Know the 2021 Preakness Horses, Get to Know All 13 U.S. But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. 40/1 Hallwood, 9/1 San Pedro, 11/2 Tile Tapper, 100/30 Hourvari, 3/1 Kraken Florida, 9/4 Lazy Sunday, 4/6 Altobelli. Still, Carrick was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95, while Robert Bruce got a 102. Beyer's subsequent books, "My $50,000 Year at the Races" (1978), "The Winning Horseplayer" (1983), and "Beyer on Speed" (1993) continued to raise racing fans' awareness of the importance of speed figures. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. Every race since has been shorter. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days. Though by no means the end all and be all of picking winners, speed figures provide a good gauge of the overall talent level of horses in a race. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. Comparatively, Rock Your World ran a 100-BSF, which paced the 2021 group. ECLIPSE AWARD EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE LEADERS LISTS 2023. Epicenter might have grabbed the weekend headlines by winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and picking up 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. Messier and Taiba recorded a 103, tops on the list. The third and final leg of the horse racing Triple Crown has arrived. The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. There's nothing written in stone, but I am mindful of the fact that I need to be careful.. Barring any major surprises, Epicenter will be the favorite for the Preakness Stakes when the gates open on Saturday. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Consistency and experience show that Epicenter is a worthy favorite who will be tough to beat. To me, he's a gift.. He is recognized on the Joe Hirsch Honor Roll in the National Museum of Racing for excellence in turf writing. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. . Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. . Low 43F. While news that Kentucky Derby sensation Rich Strike will skip the Preakness Stakes surely tamping down some of the fervor over the big race, that doesn't mean there's nothing to watch for or bet on this Saturday. With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. Speightstown has enjoyed success as a sire on dirt and turf and with sprinters as well as longer-distance runners. First published in book form in 1975, the Daily Racing Form began incorporating Beyer Speed Figures in a horse's past performances in 1992 and the system now assigns a Beyer number for each horse race. In 10 of the last 12 Runs For The Roses, the winner posted a 100+ BSF in victory. Each week, we will analyze the top maiden winners by Beyer performances. His 120 was the highest number recorded since Quality Road earned a 121 in 2011. Figure 1a shows the stack of the device used for the study with a scanning electron microscope . That will be my guiding principle.. 0:04. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on . 0:49. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. There is so much to look forward to out there.. His Beyer Speed Figure of 92 is only 4 points off the second best number. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . Used 2014 Audi A6 from Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046. Sonora, CA (95370) Today. Donaldson's Consistent Handicapping Profits (1936), which was cited by Jerry Brown as the method on which the Ragozin and Brown "sheet" figures are based. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. Hes a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. The popular rule of thumb for a rough equivalent of the Timeform score is to deduct 12-14 points to achieve the Beyer figure. border: 1px solid #CCC; If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. The Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. 97. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. He's done a super job and he's made all the right moves. I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. That's the case for this year's Wood Memorial, where pacesetter Early Voting got a slightly higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than Mo Donegal. Play today with NYRA Bets! The Beyer team felt justified for putting the older horse's time in context with the pace and level of the race. 84. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. font-size: 12px; From this work, using the same principle, Kovitz derived the beaten-lengths chart which Beyer published in Picking Winners. Early Voting's 122 TimeformUS number and Mo Donegal's 121 figure are the third and fourth best in the field. Bet On Flightline (+375) at BetOnline The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. Bet with your head, not over it. border: 1px solid #CCC; This should be taken with a gain of salt, however, because Epicenter has shown the most consistency. 1 . Why do we care? Once horses have built a figure history, Beyer projects a figure based on the figures earned by the horses in the race, in place of the par, making the numbers much more accurate. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. Hence, their status as longshots. Photo: Benoit. May 5, 2022 at 5:00 a.m. EDT. (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) Beyer Speed Figures earned by Messier (103) and Adare Manor (94) in their blowout victories yesterday at Santa Anita were the highest by male and female 3-year-olds, respectively, thus far in 2022. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. font-weight: bold; His victory put him at the top of the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 64 points. Play today with NYRA Bets! With the way things are looking, it seems like Epicenter has an excellent chance of winning the Kentucky Derby this year. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to . In Europe, Timeform has a similar rating scale that yields a number, but with a different value. For example, Messier posted a 98 Beyer in his most recent race but also has a 103 on his resume, indicating a consistent high-level performer. Beyer Speed Figures favorEpicenter, and it is not very close. The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Beyer's subsequent research added the last piece of the puzzle. In fact, his 103 Beyer Speed Figure is the highest by a 3-year-old this year, according to the Daily Racing Form. A system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method", "Flightline stunning as he runs away with Pacific Classic", "Overacheiver [sic] Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders' Cup: Talking Speed Figures with Beyer", "Best Bets: A handicapping history of the Breeders' Cup, Part 5 [Breeders' Cup]", "Commentator stands alone in Beyer history", "With a Combination of Speed and Class, War Pass Is Reminiscent of Seattle Slew", "Jerardi: Top Beyer Figures a thing of the past", "Frosted ran off the screen and to the top of the Beyer scale", "Overacheiver Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "American Pharoah's 120 erases any doubts", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyer_Speed_Figure&oldid=1115194621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from March 2015, Articles needing additional references from March 2015, All articles needing additional references, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24. I have said that everything is on the table. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. The end result also included a 98 Beyer, which matches the best speed figure run so far by Zandon, the morning-line Derby favorite. GET OUR NEWSLETTER. His performance was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 126, which according to the Daily Racing Form, which publishes the figures, is the second-highest number since eponymous BSF creator Andrew Beyer . Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. by ericdecoster February 9, 202211 min read. Note that Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow do not have relevant Beyer Speed Figures due to running outside the United States. Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Considering how poorly the Gazelle entrants ran in the Kentucky Oaks, it seems that the Gazelle was painfully weak this year, making the Wood look better than it really was. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, the gelding led at every call to cover the six furlongs in 1.11.17. p: (800) 647-6571 Simplification ran his career-best figure in October, but like Epicenter, he has been a very consistent runner throughout his campaign. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. Your TDN download has begun. No one else has topped 96. Suite 100 After reaching the WIAA Division 1 girls basketball state . Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. The Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. Bet with your head, not over it. .tableizer-table th { A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He made a breakthrough in the early 1970s when he began to experiment with speed figures, and was confident enough in his methodology to write a book, Picking Winners, in 1975. In last year's Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when crossing the wire first. Brisnet does not mark Epicenter as a standout. Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. Indy, earned her lone win at 1 1/16 miles and produced Hungry Island and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners around two turns. Through 02/26/2023. Handicappers may find it useful to relate the par to the typical figures of horses in a field. Both runners earned their lofty numbers in the Wood Memorial (G2). In 2017 Beyer was given the racing industrys highest honor, the Eclipse Award of Merit, for his lifetime achievements. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. Secret Oath's 103 number ranks as good as anyone who did not run in the Wood Memorial. Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. The British Rail Class 35 is a class of mixed-traffic B-B diesel locomotive with hydraulic transmission.Because of their Mekydro-design hydraulic transmission units, the locomotives became known as the Hymeks.They were numbered D7000-D7100. [9][10][11] Easy Goer ran a 122 in winning the 1989 Belmont Stakes, the best Beyer Speed Figure in any Triple Crown race since these ratings were first published in 1987. Sell. On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. The Beyer Speed Figure specifically does not consider other variables such as the early pace or traffic problems a horse may have faced during a given race. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. Capped a run of three wins in four starts at Fair Grounds with a score in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 102. Those who live and die by the speed figures may give Early Voting a chance to upset Epicenter andSkippylongstockinga shot to hit the board, but neither runner has any previous figure that is strong enough to lean on. .tableizer-table td { TimeformUS also valued the Wood Memorial, with Early Voting gaining the top mark. font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; As he grew up in Erie, Pa., attended Harvard College, and wrote a horse-racing column for the Washington Post, Andrew Beyers great passions were handicapping and betting. Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. The lists provide daily updates of the top Equibase Speed Figures earned in stakes races in support of the Eclipse Awards: 2-Year-Old Male 2-Year-Old Female 3-Year-Old Male. TimeformUS also values the strength of Tim Yakteen's duo. .tableizer-table td { The first published work on creating speed-figures was E.W. However, Beyer gave both colts a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. It will be well thought out and he'll have him ready to run no matter where he winds up.. Mo Donegal ran a non-threateningfifth in the Kentucky Derby after his Wood victory. Periods of rain. Beyer Speed Figure: 86.7 Betting Favorites All time: 2 for 15: 2021 Winner: Modern Games (*) $2 Exacta: $93.60 $1 Trifecta: $958.70 The ultimate objective is to have every number express the quality of a horses performance. Is Epicenter as much of a standout as he seems? At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts. In short, there is much reason for optimism as it pertains to Olympiad being effective at 1 miles in the Longines Classic Nov. 5 at Keeneland. (Only Epicenter, Messier . It was one point better than the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Life Is Good earned for winning the $3 million Pegasus World Cup in January to rate as the highest figure at more than a mile this year Charge It earned a 111 for winning the Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 2. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. Flightline, now a 4-year-old, posted an impressive Beyer speed figure of 126 in the Pacific Classic, and continued a five-race string of excellence of 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126 leading into . Following a five-month intensive process, Beyer, with partner Matt Hopkins and colleague Randy Moss, all the speed figures for 2015 turf races have been updated. [4] Easy Goer and Sunday Silence both earned 124 speed figures in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic, which tied for the fastest speed figure earned in any Breeders' Cup race. Bob Weir revealed his 2022 Metropolitan Handicap picks ahead of Saturday's race, which is also known as the Met Mile . 107. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in the right direction. This Saturday will see the 154th running of New York's horse racing classic, and Belmont Stakes odds have opened for betting. .tableizer-table th { [22] However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. table.tableizer-table { According to Beyer Speed Figures, the Wood Memorial (G2) was nothing more than an average race, but TimeformUS and Brisnet value the usually weak Wood Memorial as a strong race this year. Its important to look at multiple data points, especially in the case of an unusually high or low number, such as that of Morello. Finley said that all decisions regarding a racing schedule will be made by Sadler. 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Baby Yoda finished second in the Malibu, but was never a threat to Flightline, who won eased up by 11 1/2 lengths. Without the Beyers would assume Destin was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure is the thing. Flightline ( +375 ) at BetOnline the Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures are,... On the list for Olympiad in 2022 of his campaign, he said is recognized the., 22046 and Mark Hopkins U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figure for a given class at time! 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